Will Avs use or trade No. 27 pick?

The year of Connor Bedard is finally about to arrive at its anticlimactic ending, with the generational prospect joining the Avalanche’s division rival Chicago Blackhawks as the consensus No. 1 overall draft pick.

What follows — well, after apparent consensus No. 2 pick Adam Fantilli — is a ticking timer of a first round counting down toward the Avs and a decision.

Use No. 27 to bolster a weak prospect pool, or deploy it as part of a trade package for a ready-now NHL forward?

First-round pick trades on the draft floor aren’t nearly as common in the NHL as they are in the NBA, but Colorado’s front office shouldn’t be underestimated. When asked before the midseason trade deadline whether he was willing to trade the pick or dead-set on keeping it, general manager Chris MacFarland said he was open to parting with it for the right deal.

The Avalanche have approached the offseason the same way, keeping their options open in the weeks leading up to the NHL draft Wednesday (5 p.m. MT, ESPN) in Nashville. A late development was significant, though: By trading a pending unrestricted free agent (translation: nothing) to the cap-desperate Predators, the Avs acquired a middle-six center in Ryan Johansen and minimized the incentive to trade the pick.

They still could. They have the cap space ($7 million extra), the championship window and the roster holes for it to make sense. The upcoming free agent class is subpar, so more enticing players theoretically reside in the trade market, where Colorado typically thrives. But it’s not quite that simple. If the Avs want to utilize Gabriel Landeskog’s $7 million in LTIR cap space this season and still have a chance to extend core defenseman Devon Toews next summer, MacFarland would need to seek a very specific type of trade target: someone on a selling team who fills an immediate need (i.e., a scoring wing or play-making center) and has only one year remaining on his current contract.

That second caveat is important. Because Colorado is counting on Landeskog returning from his knee cartilage transplant in 2024-25, the front office must act under the assumption that the bonus $7 million are only good for one year. After that, you’re at the mercy of the league’s unpredictable, incremental cap increases this time next year.

How many players fit those criteria and are worth the first-round price for only one season? The list isn’t long, but there are avenues.

Notable candidates: Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele ($6.13 million), Anaheim’s Adam Henrique ($5.825 million), Calgary’s Elias Lindholm ($4.85 million) or Mikael Backlund ($5.35 million). If Toronto wanted to partially blow up its core, maybe William Nylander ($6.96 million) would fit. Or a pending restricted free agent who would need to subsequently be signed to a rental deal, like Winnipeg’s Pierre-Luc Dubois — though Montreal and Los Angeles are reportedly the real contenders for him.

So trading No. 27 for the right player could be as justifiable as it is tricky. Colorado also understands the value in keeping the pick. The front office has already been attempting recently to replenish the organization’s prospect pool, which was ranked worst in the NHL by The Athletic earlier this year and second-worst by The Hockey Writers. Adding to the stakes of No. 27, Colorado won’t pick again until the fifth round Thursday.

On one hand, the Avs don’t have a strong history of hitting with their late first-round picks. On the other, this is MacFarland’s first draft as a GM with something to prove. Past precedent isn’t his problem.

The 2023 draft class has been touted as especially deep; it’s not just Bedard. Not that it means a late first-rounder is a guaranteed star. This area of the NHL draft has always been hit or miss. Players picked 27th or within two spots of 27 since 2010 include Tage Thompson, Jake Oettinger, David Pastrnak, Adrian Kempe, Vladislav Namestnikov and Evgeny Kuznetsov. Yet in 2015, a draft year considered one of the greatest ever, the No. 27 pick was Jacob Larsson. He’s played only 172 career NHL games.

Here are a few names worth watching at the Avalanche’s No. 27. When it comes to prospects (unlike NHL trade targets), they aren’t in a position to be picky about position.

Otto Stenberg, LW: There’s definite interest in Stenberg, a prototypical Avalanche fit with the current faces of the team. He’s a bit undersized (5-11, 180) but a fierce skater with a lethal shot. He captained the Swedish U18 team this season and played in the SHL. He’s projected to go in this range, and center might be an option for him.

Ethan Gauthier, RW: Similar profile to Stenberg, but Gauthier is projected more commonly as an early second-rounder. He registered 69 points (30 goals) in 66 games last season in the QMJHL.

Theo Lindstein, LD: A smart defender who might not possess the skill and two-way prowess of current top-end Avalanche blueliners — but that’s not necessarily what Colorado is looking for in a late first-round pick. Lindstein switched between the SHL and his club’s junior team last season.

Michael Hrabal, G: Possibly the top goalie prospect in this draft, but he’s showing up in the 30s in mocks. Draft-and-develop hasn’t exactly been Colorado’s prerogative when it comes to goaltending, but Hrabal would make an interesting pair with Justus Annunen in the farm system. Alexandar Georgiev (seventh in Vezina voting) might already be playing himself toward an unaffordable pay day in two years, so it’s never too early to start planning for who’s got next.

Eduard Sale, LW: Decent chance Sale gets picked a few spots too high for the Avalanche, but they have eyes on him. He played limited minutes in the top Czech league last season (14 points in 43 games) and has the alluring traits NHL squads want: size (6-2), speed and skill.

Tanner Molendyk, LD: Great skater with high offensive potential, if he’s still waiting to hear his name by No. 27. He shares Saskatchewan as a home province with Jared Bednar.

Andrew Cristall, LW: Elite scorer in Canada’s Western Hockey League, but his size and speed are both question marks that have resulted in a wide variance in his draft evaluation. He’s projected in the 20s in some mocks, but The Athletic ranks him as the No. 68 prospect. He scored 39 goals in 54 games last season. Would he be able to keep up in the Avalanche’s system?