Nuggets’ championship was born way back in 2016 with a crazy idea

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A championship parade through the streets of Denver that will make Nuggets Nation cheer and clap louder than thunder began with one bold step on a sad day in Dallas nearly seven years ago.

This is the story of the precise moment when a fly-over NBA city gambled everything on a 21-year-old Serbian forward with a soft shooting touch and a softer belly.

As the Nuggets get ready to parade the shiny gold Larry O’Brien trophy through downtown, I’m here to tell you that maybe the most momentous date in team history is Dec. 12, 2016, when a struggling team searching for answers got blown out by 30 on the road against the Mavericks.

That’s when the brain trust of Nuggets president Josh Kroenke, general manager Tim Connelly and coach Michael Malone leaned hard into the analytics and embraced a radical hypothesis many in the league would dispute to this day:

Nikola Jokic is the second coming of Larry Bird.

“(Connelly and I) sat down and looked at the analytics. We were trying to play two talented big guys in the starting lineup at the same time and it wasn’t working, when everybody in the league was going small because of Golden State’s success,” Kroenke told me Monday night, in a champagne-drenched locker room after the Nuggets beat Miami 94-89 to close out the NBA Finals in five games.

“… At that point, Nikola was coming off an all-league rookie season. We had a data set on him we could really look at, about a year and a half of play. So we did a Player A and Player B comparison, standardized to 36 minutes per game production, looking at everything.”

The findings were jaw-dropping.

“The only caveat was Player A played basketball for four years in college and was two years older than Player B at the time of their second seasons in the NBA. But the same point in their careers, you could clearly see that Player B was better than Player A, based on the physical evidence,” recalled Kroenke, his eyes twinkling with the memory.

“Player B was Nikola Jokic. Player A was Larry Bird.”

Head coach Michael Malone of the Denver Nuggets watches the action against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half of the Nuggets' 105-103 win on Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2016. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
Head coach Michael Malone of the Denver Nuggets watches the action against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half of the Nuggets’ 105-103 win on Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2016. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

With little more to rely on except a page of outrageously optimistic data points and gut instinct, the Nuggets dared to dream a second-round draft choice could grow up to be Bird, revered for being the league’s MVP three times and leading the Celtics to three championships on his way to enshrinement in the Hall of Fame.

Was it a crazy notion? You bet.

A little more than a month earlier, shortly before Thanksgiving 2016, Jokic went to Malone and volunteered to give up his spot in the starting lineup as a power forward alongside center Jusuf Nurkic.

In defiance of the league trend, the Nuggets were futilely trying to to build a winner around twin towers, by playing Jokic out of position at forward. Long before he grew into “a triple-double machine” admired by Heat coach Erik Spoelstra, a young Jokic already saw everything on the court unfold more clearly than anyone else. At age 21, he convinced Malone to shelve the twin towers experiment after a November loss to those ballyhooed Warriors in which Jokic scored only a single basket and two free throws during 18 unproductive minutes.

But shortly thereafter, on that sad December night in Dallas when the Nuggets’ record dropped to 9-16, the team’s brain trust committed to an idea that changed everything. Armed with analytics that suggested an under-utilized reserve could be as productive as Bird, Malone looked himself in the mirror and asked: “What am I doing?”

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