Colorado TABOR refunds expected to remain strong

Colorado economic forecasters predict another tax refund windfall next spring — though how Coloradans receive the excess collections depends on how they vote this November.

Forecasters for both the legislative and executive branches expect tax collections subject to Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, or TABOR, caps to exceed $3.3 billion. That would be near the prior year’s record that lawmakers refunded through direct checks last fall. Following year forecasts still show excess collections, though not nearly as eye-popping.

The excess collections will surely become a point of leverage in a looming ballot box battle over state tax policy. Voters will decide this November on Proposition HH, a multi-faceted proposal aimed to blunt the sharpest edges of rising property taxes while also allowing the state to keep more tax dollars than currently allowed under TABOR.

Opponents are arguing its passage would lead to a long-term vacuuming of tax dollars that would otherwise be returned to taxpayers. Supporters, including Gov. Jared Polis and many lawmakers, argue it’s a necessary backfill to keep local governments and services whole while saving property owners hundreds of dollars a year in higher taxes driven by skyrocketing property values.

As an additional carrot, lawmakers attached a one-year, flat TABOR refund to the proposal passing. Economic forecasters with the Governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting predict individual taxpayers would receive $873 per filer — if HH passes.

If it doesn’t pass, the state would revert to the six-tier refund mechanism that gives lower-income taxpayers lower refund amounts, and higher-income taxpayers higher refunds, under the philosophy that higher-income taxpayers paid more into the excess taxes.