The Orioles might draft a pitcher with the No. 17 pick. They’ve shown they don’t need to.
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In four drafts under executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias, the Orioles have emphasized up-the-middle talent. They showcased the byproducts in Thursday’s lineup.
For the series finale against the New York Yankees, Adley Rutschman caught, Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson manned the middle infield, and Colton Cowser patrolled center. Each reached base at least twice — Henderson four times in the first four innings — in a 14-1 victory.
The quartet, Baltimore’s top four hitting prospects entering last season, were all taken within the Orioles’ first two picks of an Elias-era draft, putting the organization’s recent success drafting and developing position players on full display at the major league level.
Baltimore hasn’t had the same breakthrough with pitchers. In the past four drafts, the Orioles haven’t taken and signed a pitcher earlier than the fifth round, though that could change this year with Sunday’s 17th overall pick, the first time in Elias’ tenure their top selection comes later than fifth.
But their success drafting position players and the multitude of ways to add pitching to the organization mean they shouldn’t feel forced to go that direction.
“Clearly, we’ve poured a lot of considerable draft resources into position players since this group has been here,” Elias said. “I think we’ve chosen wisely with those guys. We’re obviously mindful of the need to furnish a quality major league pitching staff to go with all these position players, but we’re just not going to force it through the draft. We think the draft picks have an inherent value and a particular value to the Orioles, and we shouldn’t be drafting for need.”
The offense wasn’t the only aspect of Thursday’s game that showed why Baltimore has no requirement to take a pitcher. Overshadowed by the scoring, Kyle Bradish — one of four pitching prospects acquired from the Los Angeles Angels for starter Dylan Bundy in 2019 — pitched six scoreless innings. The second-year right-hander carries a 3.32 ERA into the All-Star break. A night before, Dean Kremer, the last remaining player in the organization who was in the package they received from the Los Angeles Dodgers for star infielder Manny Machado in 2018, struck out 10 Yankees over seven innings.
None of the five pitchers in the Orioles’ current rotation are homegrown, though all but one of Bradish and Kremer’s upper-minors outings came in Baltimore’s system. Kyle Gibson signed as a free agent. Tyler Wells was a Rule 5 draftee. Cole Irvin and a minor league arm came over this offseason in a trade with Oakland, where the Orioles parted with one of their numerous infield prospects, Darell Hernaiz.
The Orioles have shown there are many ways to acquire pitchers while repeatedly having success in devoting their highest draft picks toward hitters. Sometimes, such as the Irvin-Hernaiz trade, those efforts can work in tandem. That could be the case again at next month’s trade deadline, with Baltimore potentially pulling from its position player stockpile to reinforce its rotation, though it’s a question of whether the organization is actually willing to do so and to what level. Hernaiz, a fifth-round pick in 2019, is the only ranked prospect Elias has parted with in a player-for-player trade.
Eleven of the Orioles’ top 14 prospects, according to Baseball America, are hitters. Two of the exceptions are their final first-round picks preceding Elias, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez and left-hander DL Hall. But the next three arms in the rankings were all acquired at last year’s deadline in left-hander Cade Povich and right-handers Chayce McDermott and Seth Johnson. Three other pitching prospects acquired in trades — Jean Pinto, Juan Nunez and Easton Lucas — round out their top 30, with Baltimore’s rebuild helping to stock up that side of the farm while the draft handled the other.
But the Orioles have also hit on some of the pitchers they’ve selected in later rounds. Justin Armbruester, taken in 2021′s 12th round, has a 2.79 ERA in the upper minors and was pointed to by director of draft operations Brad Ciolek as “a really excellent case” of an early positive. Alex Pham was taken seven rounds behind Armbruester and has a 2.35 ERA as a starter between High-A and Double-A after working in relief his first two professional seasons.
Mixing them and other draftees with the trade products has given Baltimore an interesting mix of arms with traits they like — generally, hoppy fastballs and secondary pitches that can be effective against right- and left-handed batters — rising up behind Rodriguez and Hall. Both have already reached the majors but haven’t been able to stick, though it’s possible, and desirable, they make an impact in the second half.
Whoever the Orioles draft Sunday will be years away from doing the same, regardless of position. Elias said the team’s list of players in consideration has a dozen or fewer names, cut nearly in half from the length Ciolek offered a week ago, and includes hitters and pitchers. They have been linked to both in various mock drafts, with Florida right-hander Hurston Waldrep a frequent forecasted selection. Ciolek described him as a “unique talent.”
“His secondaries are lethal,” Ciolek said. “He’s got the split that he’s got a remarkable feel for. Two breaking balls that he will double, triple up with. And he’s got a fastball that sits 95 to 98 [mph]. He is a very intriguing starting pitching prospect, and we’ll definitely be discussing him and some other guys, as well.”
If the Orioles take Waldrep or another pitcher, it will be because they had him as the top player on their board after 16 other teams made their selections, not to ensure the system has an arm set to follow Rodriguez as the organization’s top pitching prospect. Should they take a hitter for the fifth straight year, the Orioles have shown a knack for guiding him into becoming yet another top 100 prospect, adding to a group of them either producing in the majors or pushing toward that chance and drawing the eyes of other organizations in the meantime.
“We are pleased with the results so far from our draft picks,” Elias said. “We’re not going to rest on our laurels on that or act like there’s not some degree of good luck involved any time you get a good draft pick. And these guys are just starting their careers. We’ll see where it goes. Making the majors is not the end-all of a successful draft pick. But, yeah, any way you look at it, I think we’ve got a sound process in place in the draft.
“I am happy with the fruits of our pipeline so far for the last four or five years, but I’m also somebody that gets paranoid about falling behind. We’re going to continue to try to maintain an edge with everything that we do in scouting and player development.”
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