‘Different kind of anxiety’ – The Denver Post

Over the past four MLB drafts combined, only five players have been taken before the Orioles made their first selection. They’ll need to wait more than three times as long this year alone.

Baltimore makes the 17th overall pick in next week’s draft, the organization’s first selection outside of the top five since 2018. Twice in the span, the Orioles had the No. 1 pick, allowing them to choose any eligible player they wanted. This year, 16 other teams will make their choice in front of them, altering how Baltimore’s amateur scouting department has put together its draft board.

“It’s going to be a little bit different kind of anxiety,” Orioles director of draft operations Brad Ciolek said. “… It has been a little bit more of a challenge, obviously, trying to plan, trying to figure out who is going to be there at pick 17 versus pick one, pick five. You have to cast a little bit of a wider net and be mindful of the names who might fall, but we’ll be prepared like we are every year, and hopefully, we’ll be happy with the results.”

Last year, Ciolek said, the Orioles had a list of six to 10 players in consideration for the first overall pick before they used it on Oklahoma high school shortstop Jackson Holliday, now MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 overall prospect. With more uncertainty, this year’s list is “20, 22″ players long, Ciolek said, noting he’s seen every member of that group play multiple times.

It doesn’t include a handful of players expected to go where the Orioles have picked in recent years, given the expectation there’s no scenario they fall to the No. 17. Although Baltimore scouted those players early in the spring, the organization has devoted its focus to those it believes could feasibly be available when it makes its choice.

“We have an idea as far as our looks are concerned of which of these guys are just too good for our selection,” Ciolek said. “If we identify guys are going go in the top five, six selections, clearly that’s kind of a waste of resources for us to continue to run back in there and see them time and time again.

“Now, there’s no absolutes with the draft. I think we’ve done a pretty good job of knowing the stock and where guys are gonna fall and end up going. But if there is a situation where one of those guys does fall the way to 17, we’ll still be prepared and obviously thrilled, ecstatic if a guy that high on our board gets to that pick. But that’s the biggest thing, is knowing kind of when to lay off the gas pedal a little bit for those players.”

Still, Ciolek described this year’s draft class as “very deep,” noting a collection of pitchers who impressed in the College World Series, talented college bats and high school infielders. All of Baltimore’s first-round selections under Ciolek and executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias have come from the latter two groups. In the past four years, the Orioles have taken a pitcher before the fifth round only once, failing to sign 2022 third-round pick Nolan McLean and getting an extra selection after the same round this year as a result. In all, Baltimore has five of the top 100 picks.

When it comes to the No. 17 pick, Ciolek said he believes Baltimore will add to its collection of first-round success stories, each the byproduct of a losing season from the major league team. 2019 first-overall pick Adley Rutschman could be named to his first All-Star team Sunday. The outfielders selected in the first round between him and Holliday, 2020′s second pick Heston Kjerstad and 2021′s fifth pick Colton Cowser, are both banging on the door at Triple-A and regarded as top 100 prospects leaguewide.

“Very pleased,” Ciolek said. “Clearly you don’t want to get too far ahead of it. You’re always still kind of looking to perfect some things, tweak some things here and there. And that’s the one thing I think we do remarkably well is after the draft, after the signing period, we sit back and say, ‘OK, what are some areas we could have maybe improved upon? What can we do better?’ And then we try to implement that moving forward. But yeah, pretty happy as of right now with how things have turned out.

“We’re confident. We believe in our process.”

The Orioles have already shown they can have success beyond the top of the draft, with the left side of their infield Saturday as an example. Shortstop Gunnar Henderson became baseball’s top prospect after being the 42nd overall pick in the 2019 draft. Third baseman Jordan Westburg was taken 30th overall in 2020. The organization hopes its first pick in coming seasons comes as late in the first round as possible, as that would be an indication of not only reaching the postseason but also getting deep into it.

One side effect of moving later in the draft is a decrease in the Orioles’ signing bonus pool, which they have maneuvered — particularly with the Kjerstad and Cowser picks — to secure relatively higher-priced talent later in the draft. Baltimore’s total pool, representing the cumulative slot values of their picks through the 10th round, is about $10.53 million, with the No. 17 pick accounting for just under $4.17 million of that. Last year, the first pick alone came with a slot value of about $8.85 million, with Holliday’s franchise-record signing bonus of $8.19 million giving the Orioles about $660,000 to devote to other selections.

Although Ciolek said it’s possible the Orioles employ the so-called underslot strategy, their focus is on finding the ideal player and person for them, with scouting amateurs’ character a key part of Baltimore’s predraft process.

“I’ve always kind of taken the approach that we want the best player, best fit for our organization, and if there are savings to be had, that’s just kind of an extra bonus,” Ciolek said. “First and foremost thing we’re going to do is find the best guy who’s the best fit for our organization, and then obviously we’ll take a look at what happens from there.”

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