Tesla Price Prediction: $3,000 or $300,000 – The Real Numbers

The hype surrounding Tesla is real. The electric car company is frequently called the future of transportation. Even its critics have to admit that the company is doing something entirely new and revolutionary with cars.  Even with its recent setbacks, the stock price of Tesla is still up by over 1,000% in the past year. And if you’re invested in Tesla as an investment, you’re probably very happy with that return. There is a lot more to the story than just being one of the most overvalued stocks in the market right now. Here’s what you need to know about how a $3,000 Tesla price works, and whether investing in the company makes sense.

How much does a Tesla cost?

The base price of a Tesla is $35,000, though a price of $44,500 is more often seen when people talk about a “fully loaded” Tesla. For example, a Model S fully loaded with leather seats, a big screen for the rear passengers, a variety of other nice features, and a fancy paint job could cost anywhere from $60,000 to almost $100,000. A Model X fully loaded with features like the full rear seating option, a huge panoramic windshield, a massive sunroof, a self-driving feature, and a massive $132,000 price tag is not uncommon.  There is no single set price for a Tesla as there is no single “standard” for any car. For example, a Ford Fusion could be $27,500 or $32,000, while an Audi A4 could be $33,500 or $45,000. The options, equipment, and quality of materials will vary greatly from one Tesla to the next.

Drafting a Tesla stock forecast

Investors and speculators love the idea that Tesla is going to be a massive, profitable company someday. However, it’s not clear if investors are really thinking about the business of selling cars, or just dreaming about the price of Tesla stock one day. The truth is that you can’t know for sure how much a Tesla will cost and how much it will be worth. However, it’s certainly possible to come up with some numbers.  First, you have to figure out how many cars Tesla sells each year. The company sold over 100,000 cars in 2017. However, due to scheduling issues, the company only delivered about 92,500 cars in 2017. That’s a drop of about 10%. If we assume that there were only 92,500 cars in the pipeline at the end of 2017, then we can estimate that Tesla sold around 121,000 cars in 2017.  That 121,000 number is important, because it’s how many fully-loaded cars Tesla sells each year. That number is also important because it’s how much a Tesla will be worth in the future. Investing in Tesla right now is a bit like buying Amazon stock today – you only need to know that it will be worth a lot more in the future.

Tesla has a $3,000 fully loaded Model 3

Tesla’s first mass-market car, the Model 3, launched in July 2017 with a starting price of $35,000 before any additional incentives. The car was supposed to have a range of at least 215 miles per charge, and it is indeed possible to get a fully loaded Model 3 with all the bells and whistles for that $35,000 price. However, it’s not clear if people will be willing to pay that much for a car that isn’t even available yet.  The Model 3 is Tesla’s chance to prove to the world that electric cars are a viable alternative to the internal-combustion engine. If the Model 3 does well, then it’s not unrealistic to assume that Tesla will sell over 500,000 cars in the next 20 or so years. That number is certainly possible, but it’s also totally dependent on the success of the Model 3.

Read also: Amazon stock forecast

Tesla has a $30,000 fully loaded Model S

Tesla’s mid-market sedan, the Model S, has a starting price of $82,500 for the “super charge” version. That version, however, comes with a range of only 240 miles per charge. For that price you get a car with a range of more than 300 miles per charge, a luxurious interior, and a high-end look.  Tesla has released a “fully loaded” version of the Model S, but it costs $100,000. While that’s a more reasonable price for that kind of car, it’s still a lot of money for a car that isn’t available yet. The Model S may not be as profitable as some believe, but it is definitely one of the most well-known luxury cars on the market.

Tesla has a $150,000 fully loaded Model X

Finally, the most expensive Tesla, the Model X, starts at $142,000 for the “standard” version. That price may still seem high, but keep in mind that the car costs $90,000 to start with. The “standard” version has a range of about 250 miles per charge, and it’s the most luxurious vehicle that Tesla has ever made. However, it’s also probably not as profitable as the Model S, because it costs Tesla less to build.  Tesla is betting on the Model X as the flagship of their vehicles. They want it to be a car that people will buy not just because they want to be seen driving an expensive car, but because they want to be more confident in their driving skills. The Model X is a more expensive version of the Model S, and it’s also the one where Tesla is the most optimistic.

Bottom line

Investing in Tesla is a risky bet on the company’s success in the future. It’s also a bet on the price of Tesla stock increasing in the future, as it’s now up by more than 1,000% in the past year. Tesla, however, is one of the best stocks to buy now because of the quality of its vehicles, and because of its position in the electric car industry.